The Qualification Math
As the UEFA Europa League enters its final four-match stretch, the mathematical requirements for progression to the knockout stage have become clear. Data platform Football Meets Data, as reported by Football Italia, estimates that 10 points in the league phase will provide a 95% probability of securing a spot in the top 24, which ensures qualification for the playoff round. Dropping to nine points significantly complicates matters, reducing the success probability to 52.8%.
For clubs aiming to bypass the playoffs and secure a direct ticket to the last 16, the requirements are substantially more demanding. A top-eight finish typically necessitates 16 to 17 points; reaching 15 points currently offers only a 50.9% chance of direct qualification, whereas climbing to 17 points increases that likelihood to 99.6%. Goal difference remains the primary tie-breaker for teams finishing with identical point totals.
Juventus: Maintaining Momentum
Juventus, managed by Luciano Spalletti, currently sits in a strong position with 10 points from four matches. Their latest success came on Thursday, November 5, 2026, in a 2-1 away victory against AZ Alkmaar. Teun Koopmeiners and Randal Kolo Muani provided the first-half goals, ensuring the team remains unbeaten in the competition. This performance marks the first time since the 1999-2000 UEFA Cup season that Juventus has exceeded 10 goals in their first four European matches, according to beIN Sports.
Despite the victory, Spalletti emphasized that the team must not rest on its laurels. The coach noted that the intensity dropped in the latter stages of the match, allowing AZ to pressure the defense. “What we needed to do was score a third goal,” Spalletti told Sky Sport Italia. “When you win away to a team that hasn’t lost at home in 17 European games, that is a sign you played with authority and quality.” With 10 points secured, Juventus is effectively within one or two wins of guaranteeing their place in the knockout phases.
Milan: The Challenge Ahead
In contrast, Milan faces a precarious path after a difficult start. Rúben Amorim’s side currently holds only three points after four rounds and has slipped to 28th place in the standings, outside the qualification zone. Their most recent result, a 2-0 home loss to Ferencváros, has left them in a position where they likely need at least seven points from their remaining four fixtures to reach the required threshold for the playoff round.