A new set of public opinion polls released on July 20, 2026, reveals that Florida’s upcoming 2026 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races are shaping up to be significantly tighter than in previous election cycles, though Republicans continue to hold structural advantages. The polling data, published separately by the University of North Florida’s (UNF) Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) and the polling firm Cygnal, highlights a shifting political landscape as undecided voters begin to clarify their choices ahead of the November 3 general election.
In the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican incumbent Ashley Moody—who was appointed to replace now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio—Moody holds a commanding 50% of support against both potential Democratic opponents. However, the Democratic primary contest itself has tightened. State Representative Angie Nixon of Jacksonville holds a slim lead over Broward County’s Alex Vindman, leading 42% to 40%, which remains within the poll’s 3.8 percentage point margin of error. According to UNF pollsters, Nixon’s progressive platform and her May 15 arrest during a Capitol sit-in protest over redistricting may have boosted her standing among left-leaning voters. She faces a misdemeanor trial in September.
For the gubernatorial race, U.S. Representative Byron Donalds, who carries the endorsement of Donald Trump, has established a clear lead in the Republican primary. The Cygnal poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters, conducted July 12–13, shows Donalds leading with 43% support. He is followed by James Fishback at 12%, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins at 11%, and former House Speaker Paul Renner at 2%, while 31% of primary voters remain undecided. In a hypothetical general election matchup surveyed by UNF, Donalds leads the presumptive Democratic nominee, former U.S. Representative David Jolly, by five percentage points (46% to 41%). Jolly has recently faced public scrutiny regarding past professional ties to businessman Leo Govoni, who is accused of stealing over $100 million from a special needs trust fund. Jolly has strongly denied any knowledge or involvement in the fraud. The Democratic field was also impacted by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, who suspended his campaign on June 5 following a prostate cancer diagnosis.
Despite the tightening margins, Florida’s overall electorate remains heavily Republican. Official state Division of Elections records from June 30 show approximately 5.5 million registered Republicans, compared to 4 million Democrats and 3.8 million unaffiliated or third-party voters. Furthermore, prominent Florida Republicans maintain strong local standing. Governor Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio enjoy job approval ratings of 57% and 56%, respectively. In contrast, Vice President JD Vance holds a 49% approval rating, while Donald Trump has a 48% approval rating against 51% disapproval among likely Florida voters.
The UNF poll surveyed 848 likely Florida midterm voters between July 8 and July 17, using a mixed-mode telephone and online methodology. The Cygnal primary poll surveyed 500 likely Republican voters with a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.