Singapore’s Public Service Division (PSD) has launched a review into a working paper published by the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that alleges civil servants “disproportionately” purchased residential properties near future MRT stations before the locations were publicly announced. The PSD, which operates under the Prime Minister’s Office, confirmed on September 14, 2026, that it is evaluating the data and methodology used by the researchers.
Integrity and Potential Investigation
The PSD stated that it takes concerns regarding public service integrity “extremely seriously.” In a formal response to media inquiries, the division indicated that it would refer the findings to the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) if the internal review establishes a “material basis” for doing so. The CPIB is Singapore’s independent agency responsible for investigating and preventing corruption.
The NBER working paper, titled “Do Social Norms Substitute for Enforcement? Evidence from Public Officials’ Home Purchases in Singapore,” has not yet undergone peer review or formal assessment by the NBER Board of Directors. It was authored by researchers from Columbia University, the University of Hong Kong, and Stanford University.
Methodology and Key Allegations
The authors claimed to have identified “informed trading” by linking private-property transaction records with the Singapore Government Directory Interactive (SGDI) to categorize buyers as civil servants. By comparing these transactions against the timeline of MRT expansion announcements, the researchers alleged that purchase intensity spiked among civil servants one to two years before official announcements.
The paper suggests that these purchases were most prevalent among “mid-level officials,” noting that this group possesses sufficient financial resources to act while facing lower levels of public scrutiny than senior leadership. The authors also contrasted civil servant activity with that of real estate agents and corporate board members, finding that the latter groups did not exhibit similar buying patterns before station announcements. According to the researchers, this disparity supports the interpretation that the civil servants were acting on non-public information rather than market analysis.
Academic and Institutional Context
The working paper includes acknowledgments to several prominent academics, including economists from the National University of Singapore (NUS) and researchers from the University of Chicago and Harvard. The mention of individuals such as Li Shengwu, a professor of economics at Harvard, drew additional attention due to his family ties to Singapore’s senior political leadership. The authors stated that the study was intended to examine whether “pro-integrity social norms” could serve as a substitute for formal enforcement in preventing misconduct.
As the PSD continues its review, the status of the paper remains that of a discussion-based working document. The government’s next steps will depend on whether the internal verification of the authors’ data confirms the alleged correlations or reveals methodological limitations that could invalidate the study’s conclusions.