The simultaneous bullish analyst reports arrived just a day after SpaceX’s Starship vehicle successfully completed its first orbital test flight during Flight 14, deploying 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. Although the mission encountered a premature engine shutdown that put parts of the ascent in jeopardy, the vehicle pushed through to accomplish its core deployment goals, according to TradingView.
Ground-Based AI Compute Leasing Drives Growth
Central to TD Cowen’s bullish outlook is SpaceX’s terrestrial AI compute leasing business. Analyst John Blackledge noted in a Yahoo Finance report that the division is projected to become SpaceX’s fastest-growing revenue stream, scaling from $14 billion in 2026 to $66 billion in 2027 and reaching $133 billion by 2028.
According to Benzinga, major industry players including Google and Anthropic have already lined up for this high-performance capacity, with total ground-based leasing capacity expected to expand from 2.1 gigawatts in 2026 to 6 gigawatts by the close of 2027. Furthermore, confidential IPO filing details uncovered by Reuters and cited by The Information revealed that Anthropic has committed up to $84.5 billion for access to Nvidia-powered computing infrastructure through 2029, though the agreements include provisions allowing either party to exit with 90 days’ notice.
UBS Forecasts Strong Third-Quarter Performance
Complementing the long-term AI outlook, UBS issued a strong near-term forecast, predicting third-quarter revenue of $13.8 billion—roughly 7% above Wall Street consensus estimates of $12.9 billion. The firm also projected an adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 billion, which sits 9% ahead of consensus, according to TradingView.
UBS reiterated its Buy rating and a $210 price target, pointing to the expansion of Anthropic partnerships and a 59% jump in connectivity revenue to $4.9 billion. Capital expenditures for the quarter were estimated at $19.3 billion as the company heavily reinvests in its computing infrastructure, launch capabilities, and Starlink satellite constellation.
Starship Propulsion Scrutiny and Future Catalysts
Despite the enthusiasm surrounding financial metrics and AI leasing, institutional analysts remain watchful of hardware milestones. Morgan Stanley assigned Starship’s recent orbital flight a “B+” grade, designating it a major accomplishment while flagging recurring propulsion system issues after an engine shut down prematurely during ascent, as detailed by TradingView.
Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target, noting that the upcoming Flight 15 mission—featuring a potential full catch of the Starship vehicle—could become the stock’s most significant valuation catalyst since its initial public offering. Meanwhile, retail sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits remained neutral amid high message volumes as the stock continued tracking toward its second consecutive monthly gain.