OPEC+ oil-producing countries kept December production targets steady on Sunday, October 31, 2026, confirming expectations that no further policy adjustments will occur until next year as the group continues to struggle with export disruptions from the Iran war, according to a statement reported by CNBC. Seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — made the decision during an online meeting. While Gulf members have been boosting exports disrupted for months by the ongoing conflict, most are still pumping well below their established targets. OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key allies including Russia, with only the core seven members involved in monthly output decisions in recent years.
All members of the broader 21-country alliance are scheduled to meet on November 29, 2026, when analysts expect the group will decide its 2027 production framework. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, noted in reporting by CNBC that today’s decision was the straightforward step, while the much more important test comes at the November ministerial meeting.
Market Pressures and Crude Price Surges
Oil prices jumped more than 2% ahead of the weekend, with Brent crude settling at almost $118 a barrel—the highest level since April—as traders braced for a potential escalation in the Iran war following the U.S. midterm elections. Brent crude futures for December, which expired on Friday, closed up $2.76, or 2.4%, at $117.64 a barrel, after touching a high of $118, while the more active January contract gained $2.63 to $113.43, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended $2.12 higher at $104.12.
At the same time, the International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of excess supply in 2027 should Gulf flows return to normal. Analysts emphasize that OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027, as the alliance must plan around massive uncertainty regarding the conflict, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of the surplus that could emerge once disrupted barrels return to the global market.
Production Capacity Review and Unwinding Cuts
The seven core members have been boosting output targets for much of 2026 and, in September, completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023, while keeping targets steady for October and November. However, OPEC+ still maintains a further layer of production cuts amounting to about 2 million barrels per day covering most members through the end of 2026.
To set appropriate 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas and shape plans to unwind those remaining cuts, the group must complete a comprehensive review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter. The Iran war has disrupted expansion projects across the Middle East, throwing estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, CNBC reported. As a result, the capacity review is now expected to be finalized by mid-November, providing the necessary data for the upcoming November 29 ministerial session.