Shifting Tides Along the Border
With less than a month before the November 2026 midterm elections, South Texas Latino voters who shifted toward Donald Trump in 2024 are becoming fiercely contested again. Amid voter anxiety over high consumer prices, low presidential approval ratings, and overextended immigration policies, enthusiasm for the GOP is waning in key border districts. House Republicans’ super PAC has pulled millions in ads from Republican congressional candidate Tano Tijerina’s race against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas’ 28th District, while other border races remain toss-ups. These contests will be critical in deciding control of Congress, where Republicans currently hold narrow majorities.
Hispanic and Latino voters nationwide moved rightward in 2024 in surprisingly large numbers and helped deliver a second presidential term to Donald Trump. In Texas’ 28th District, voters opted for Trump by 7 percentage points after backing President Joe Biden four years earlier, while simultaneously reelecting Cuellar to an 11th term. Riding high after their 2024 success, Republicans redrew congressional maps in Texas and Florida, banking on continued support. However, high consumer prices, Trump’s low approval ratings, and sentiment that immigration policies have overreached have cooled GOP momentum with less than a month before the 2026 midterm election, according to CNBC.
The Battle for Texas’ 28th District
Tano Tijerina, a former Webb County judge who defected from the Democratic Party, has made his 2024 political shift a central pillar of his campaign. Speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Tijerina framed himself as a defender of South Texas values. Yet, his race against Rep. Henry Cuellar has encountered headwinds. On Wednesday, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republicans’ super PAC, dropped its push to boost Tijerina and pulled millions of dollars in ads from the district, according to CNBC. The PAC had previously invested more than $5 million to oust Cuellar this cycle, per data from AdImpact.
Cuellar, an institutional figure in Laredo politics, attributes his electoral longevity to retail politics and deep roots in the community. Despite facing a federal indictment in 2024 for money laundering, wire fraud, and bribery—charges that he and his wife denied and for which Trump ultimately pardoned them—Cuellar’s standing in Laredo appears stable. He recently announced $772,700 in federal funding for a homeland security training program at Laredo College, reinforcing his reputation as a reliable conduit for federal resources.
Broader Border Races and Polling Reality
The challenges facing Tijerina extend across other majority-Latino border districts in Texas. Races involving Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who faces a challenge from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido in the 15th District, and Eric Flores, who is running against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District, are listed as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Recent polling indicates a shifting dynamic: a survey conducted for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter found Democratic statewide candidates leading their Republican opponents by a 2-to-1 margin among likely Hispanic voters in Texas. Furthermore, an NBC News/Telemundo poll released Oct. 4 showed that 27% of surveyed Latino voters approved of Trump, while 59% preferred Democratic control of Congress.
Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha noted that voter frustration is driving the current political realignment. “Latino voters are pissed,” Rocha told CNBC. “Right now, we benefit from them being pissed at Donald Trump.” Meanwhile, Republican strategist Mike Madrid cautioned that the shift back to Democrats does not mean Hispanic voters are returning permanently to the party fold, noting long-term trends of disengagement from traditional Democratic alignment.
Nuanced Views on Immigration and Economic Pressures
Laredo sits directly across the Rio Grande from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, creating an integrated cross-border economy where nearly 95% of the population is Hispanic or Latino. Residents frequently cross the border for errands, taking advantage of lower grocery prices and exchange rates. This proximity makes immigration policy a central electoral issue. Erin Covey, who leads House coverage for the Cook Report, noted that border residents possess nuanced views, desiring strong border security while remaining critical of overreaching federal measures. As the November election approaches, these competing pressures will determine whether Republicans can hold onto their hard-won ground in South Texas.